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Is Bitcoin Set for a 2023 Bull Run?
February 3, 2023
Is Bitcoin Set for a 2023 Bull Run?
February 3, 2023
Is Bitcoin Charging for a Bull Run In 2023?
Bitcoin’s price has been enjoying a huge recovery in 2023, with its price up over 50%, leading many to predict that a new bull run is underway. Is this mindless optimism, pure hope, or is there a possibility to their argument?
Let’s look at the current situation with Bitcoin compared to previous cycles, and see what other factors might be behind the suggestion that the Bitcoin bull is ready to romp again.
A Matter of Factors
When we talk about Bitcoin’s bull and bear market potential, we need to take into account two types of factors – internal and external. Internal factors relate to what’s going on with Bitcoin itself, while external factors relate to the wider financial and geopolitical situation.
Being a global asset now rather than an alternative upstart, Bitcoin is buffeted by the same winds that buffet the larger stock indices. These include the strength of certain currencies and the decisions of central banks and governments.
Let’s start with the internal factors that might dictate whether Bitcoin is set for a bull run in 2023 or not.
Bull Run or Bear Market Rally?
Bitcoin may be showing some healthy green candles for the first time in a long time, but it’s important to differentiate between a bear market rally and a full-on bull run. A bear market rally is a sharp, temporary rally that happens within a broader bear market, while a bull market is a cycle-long price uptrend.
Bear market rallies are dangerous because they can suck in inexperienced investors and traders, who hold off until it looks like a bull run is on the cards, before the rug is pulled and the price returns to something like its originating point.
A clear example of this took place with Bitcoin in 2019:
Following its crash to $3,500 in late 2018, Bitcoin enjoyed a six-month bear market rally that took it all the way back up to $14,000 again.
However, just as the uninitiated were getting excited about another potential bull run, it rejected here and spent the rest of the year giving back its gains, almost touching the lows of the December 18 crash. Only when it finally bypassed this $14,00 level again in October 2020 could we really be positive that a new bull market had started.
But what of the current situation? The parallels with 2023 and 2019 are, in fact, uncanny. On both occasions, the Bitcoin price collapsed at the end of the prior year, followed by a slow and steady recovery, and then a multi-thousand-dollar blast. Today, this has left us in a familiar situation:
Bitcoin’s 2019 bounce saw it jump 300% before giving back almost all of those gains over the following year. The situation Bitcoin faces now is very similar – a rise to the equivalent level, $46,500, would only be a 200% jump from its lows. This, understandably, would get many people very excited… perhaps too excited.
If Bitcoin were to reach this level it is likely that we would see a repeat of 2019, where those who believe that a full on bull market is underway are tempted back in, only for Bitcoin to reject there and spend the next few months giving back its gains. For a bull market to be confirmed, Bitcoin would need to stay above this $46,500 level for a prolonged period.
The Halving
There are other factors that suggest that a bull market will not take place in 2023. As we have seen with prior bear markets, Bitcoin typically needs at least two years to be ‘cleansed’ of all the hype before it can start another cycle.
Given that Bitcoin topped out at $69,000 in November 2021, we are only fifteen months into the bear market. Historically speaking, this is still some way short of the typical passage of time Bitcoin takes.
Allied to this, Bitcoin’s market cycles are driven by its ‘halving’, which takes place every four years. Every Bitcoin halving to date has effectively marked the beginning of a bull market following a period of post-bear market stagnation, and the timings look to be lining up with this philosophy once again.
The next Bitcoin halving is in 2024, so it would, again, be breaking with history to experience a proper bull market before then.
The Global Economic Situation
Aside from what’s going on with Bitcoin, we need to consider the situation within the wider economy. Bitcoin has only ever really operated in a booming economy, with the 12-year bull market that was ended by the Coronavirus in 2020 lending itself to a huge appetite for risk.
How times change.
The 2022 Bitcoin selloff coincided with a rapid increase in inflation and the cost of living for many countries around the world. The populations of entire nations are under financial pressures the likes of which they haven’t faced since the 2008 crash that birthed Bitcoin.
This situation means that the flood of new capital that is needed to fund any bull market simply isn’t there, and won’t be until the cost of living crisis is, at least partially, resolved. These things eventually balance themselves out of course, but there are few analysts predicting that 2023 will be the year that the world gets back on its feet – quite the opposite in fact.
2023 Bull Run is Unlikely
Analyzing these factors then, it’s very unlikely that the rally Bitcoin is enjoying will turn into a fully-fledged bull run. There are too many factors against it, from its own historical patterns to the inability of bull run participants to afford to join in, were one to flare.
This isn’t of course to say that Bitcoin won’t enjoy huge gains this year, that’s entirely possible, but once that crucial level of $46,500 heaves into view (if it gets that far), it would be wise to be taking money off the table rather than putting more in.
